The Australian dollar has endured a rollercoaster ride in recent months along with the significant volatility in global risk sentiment. After reviewing a range of fundamental drivers, however, it appears the $A is currently reasonably close to fair value.
An $A valuation framework
A lot has happened since I formally reviewed my $A valuation framework in November last year.

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The coronavirus continues to take its toll on economies and sharemarkets globally.
In the third session of our “Virus Crisis” webinar series, BetaShares Chief Economist, David Bassanese, provided an update on the impact, while Associate Director of Adviser Business, Alistair Mills, led the discussion on investment ideas for three market recovery scenarios.

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Asset allocation can help diversify your portfolio and assists to make it more resilient to changing market conditions.
Our recent webinar with Director of Adviser Business, Blair Modica, went back to basics to explain how ETFs work, and how they may be used to diversify your portfolio.

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As the coronavirus continues to create uncertainty in sharemarkets and economies across the globe, we held the second of our fortnightly “Virus Crisis” webinar series, to provide a timely update on the virus and how it’s affecting markets and the macro economy.
BetaShares Chief Economist,

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The global financial system has experienced a month of chaos as the surge in cases of COVID-19 around the world has sent markets into freefall. Increasing rates of infection, reactive policy responses enforcing lockdowns, and declining sharemarkets appear to have set global economies on the path to recession.

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On 28 February, the Australian dollar fell below US$0.65, its lowest point since the GFC. As the chart below shows, the AUD remains in a short and long-term downtrend against the USD that currently shows no signs of abating.
AUD vs. USD: 5 March 2018 to 4 March 2020

Source: www.xe.com.

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Despite a likely improvement in the global economic outlook in 2020, this note explains why the $A may well slip further next year – due to an unwinding of the recent iron-ore price boom, $US strength, and local quantitative easing measures by the Reserve Bank.

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Currency, for most investors, has always been a topic that causes consternation.
While many investors recognise the diversification value that international investments can bring, the fact that, by definition, such investments bring with them currency considerations adds an additional element to the decision.

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