Black Friday sale - BetaShares

Black Friday sale

BY Justin Arzadon | 30 November 2021
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Black Friday is a colloquial term for the Friday following the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. It traditionally marks the start of the Christmas shopping period and kicks off with everything going on sale. Bitcoin also went on sale, hitting 6-week lows of US$53,569, and had the rest of the crypto and stockmarkets falling along with it, on fears that a new coronavirus variant detected in South Africa might be vaccine-resistant and many nations might have to reintroduce painful lockdown restrictions.

Ether fell a little less than bitcoin over the last 7 days, returning -6.98%, slightly outperforming bitcoin’s -7.75%.

Bitcoin’s market cap is down to $1.01T, market dominance remained at 42.11%, and the value of the entire crypto market dropped to $2.44T.

Price High Low Change from previous week
BTC (in US$) $54,387 $60,004 $53,569 -7.75%
ETH (in US$) $4,055 $4,550 $3,933 -6.98%

Source: CoinMarketCap. As at 28 November 2021. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Performance is shown in U.S. dollars and does not take into account any USD/AUD currency movements.

News we are keeping an eye on

After becoming the first country in the world to adopt bitcoin as legal tender, El Salvador’s President, Nayib Bukele, announced plans to build the world’s first ‘Bitcoin City’ funded initially by the world’s first sovereign bitcoin-backed bonds. Bukele said the city planned in the eastern region of La Union would get geothermal power from a volcano and would be free of income, capital gains, property, and municipal taxes, but would have a 10% value added tax (VAT).

The plan reportedly includes the issue of a 10-year bitcoin-backed municipal bond of US$1B, where $500M would be used to buy bitcoin, and the remaining $500M would go towards the city’s infrastructure, bitcoin mining in the area and other city services. The bond would pay a 6.5% yield to investors, and after a 5-year lock-up period it would liquidate the bitcoin purchased to pay a special dividend. The bond issuance would begin in 20221.

The European Council and the European Parliament have come to an agreement on a digital finance package which includes ‘The Regulation on Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA)’ and will now negotiate the rules set out in the framework before it is formally adopted as law. According to the European Council website, “The purpose of MiCA is to create a regulatory framework for the crypto-assets market that supports innovation and draws on the potential of crypto-assets in a way that preserves financial stability and protects investors”2.

Highlighted in the framework are promises to make it simpler for crypto firms to expand throughout the EU by facilitating a passportable licence that would enable them to operate in any country in the EU. There is a heavy focus on regulating “basket-backed stablecoin” or cryptocurrency pegged to the value of a combination of other assets or currencies, referred to as “asset-referenced tokens”, stating they should “be subject to more stringent requirements than issuers of other cryptoassets.” The Council has agreed that credit institutions authorised under the EU’s capital requirements directive “should not need another authorisation under [MiCA] in order to issue asset-referenced tokens” and these institutions should also be exempt from the capital requirements stablecoin issuers are required to maintain.

The Council’s document also said that the MiCA regulations would not apply to non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Other potential exceptions include crypto assets that are offered for free or as rewards, and transactions between global organisations like the International Monetary Fund and the Bank for International Settlements. The document said “It is appropriate to exempt certain intragroup transactions and some public entities from the scope as they do not pose risks”3.

On-chain metrics

This week we take a look at the Bitcoin: Spent Volume Age Bands (SVAB) (7 day Moving Average). With the bitcoin price ~21% off its recent highs, this metric can provide some insight into who is selling at current price levels.

Citing data from on-chain analytics company Glassnode, you can see the downtrend in the purple bands (the darker the purple, the longer the coins have been held), noting that there was a peak from these sellers from about 24 October to 8 November when the price was between $61-68K. However, at current price levels these older coins are spending less as this correction plays out, highlighting that the volume is being driven by shorter-term holders or traders.

Spent Volume Age Bands

Spent-Volume-Age-Bands

Source: Glassnode.

Altcoin news

The altcoins with the most hype over the last 30 days are tokens associated with gaming and the metaverse. Over the last 30 days MANA and SAND returned 309%  and 510% respectively. These are the native tokens used in the games The Sandbox and Decentraland.

Following the announcement of the rebranding of Facebook to Meta in late October, many altcoins associated with the metaverse have trended higher. The metaverse is a shared environment of a combination of multiple elements of technology, including virtual reality, augmented reality and video where users ‘live’ within a digital universe.

Helping drive prices higher were The Sandbox announcing Alpha, which will run for three weeks starting on 29 November, and which consists of the Alpha Hub and 17 experiences, three of which anyone can join. In the Decentraland metaverse, a patch of virtual real estate recently sold for 618,000 MANA, which is the equivalent of $2,781,000 at the time of writing4.

Investing in crypto assets or companies servicing crypto-asset markets should be considered very high risk. Exposure to crypto assets involves substantially higher risk when compared to traditional investments due to their speculative nature and the very high volatility of crypto-asset markets.

Investing in crypto assets or crypto-focused companies is not suitable for all investors and should only be considered by investors who (i) fully understand their features and risks or after consulting a professional financial adviser, and (ii) who have a very high tolerance for risk and the capacity to absorb a rapid loss of some or all of their investment.

Any investment in crypto assets or crypto-focused companies should only be considered as a very small component of an investor’s overall portfolio.


1. https://fortune.com/2021/11/22/el-salvador-cryptocurrency-bitcoin-bonds-volcano-powered-tax-free-city-nayib-bukele/
2. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/11/24/digital-finance-package-council-reaches-agreement-on-mica-and-dora/
3. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/53105/st14067-en21.pdf
4. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2021/11/25/decentralands-mana-token-hits-all-time-high-after-sale-of-virtual-real-estate/


Off the Chain will be published every Tuesday, and provide highlights of key developments in bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market along with analysis, insights and the latest news in the world of crypto.

It provides general information only and is not a recommendation to invest in any crypto asset, crypto-focused company or investment product.

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