Thanks to rapid technological advances, the global robotics and artificial intelligence (A.I.) sectors stand poised to significantly boost global economic productivity and redress worker shortages caused by population ageing over coming decades.  As this note will demonstrate, moreover, the robot revolution also offers the growth potential to reward investors who tap into this emerging global

Read more

With the US labour market tight and inflation starting to lift, one similar historical episode that has attracted investor attention, and which may be instructive for today’s market, relates to the late 1960s.  At that time US wage and price inflation started to lift quite quickly, which eventually led to higher interest rates and a

Read more

With solid global demand and ongoing supply side disruptions, oil prices could well remain reasonably firm over the coming year. If so, there may be investment opportunities in energy related ETFs. In this post, I examine the dynamics of oil and investment opportunities further. Oil Market Appears Tight Since bottoming in early 2016, global oil

Read more

In meeting with clients over recent months, one of the common questions I’ve been asked has concerned the potential “income shock” to be faced by households given the apparently large number of interest-only mortgage loans that may need to be reset into principal and interest loans over coming years. This note suggests that while this

Read more

With local inflation and interest rates seemingly entrenched at low levels,  this note suggests it now perhaps an opportune time for the Reserve Bank and Federal Government to reconsider the inflation target itself – especially as it now seems a little higher than the international norm. Lower for longer presents dangers Last week marked two

Read more

Probably the biggest single macro-economic risk to the ongoing global equity bull market is a sudden upsurge in US wage inflation, due to its tight labour market. This could in turn see US interest rates move up much more quickly.  This note examines the risks. US labour market appears very tight The chart below outlines

Read more

The performance of European and Japanese shares has generally lagged US shares since the global financial crisis, but they now appear to offer scope for outperformance, especially if the $US remains strong.  Furthermore, due to sector and demographic headwinds, any outperformance seems likely to especially favour exporters. Europe & Japan: Lagging the United States As

Read more

The Australian dollar has traded a wide up-trending range against the $US since early 2016, though appears to have broken below this range more recently. This note provides an updated valuation framework to explain recent $A behavior. The model also suggests that, under reasonable assumptions, the $A could test US71c by year-end. $A – breaking

Read more

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics Residential Property Price Report suggests house prices eased in most capital cities in the March quarter. This note provides an update on my house price valuation estimates. It suggests that while Sydney property remains relatively overvalued, several other capital cities now appear relatively cheap.  Importantly, however, overall Australian house

Read more

In light of revelations arising from the Banking Royal Commission, there’s now an even greater industry focus on the fees being charged for investment advice and financial products. As this note demonstrates, ensuring investment fees are not excessive is one key way investors can look to boost their investment returns over time. Investment Fees: The

Read more