The following is a copy of a contributed commentary for the Australian Financial Review on Friday 6 December 2019.
Consumer have stopped spending
This week’s September quarter national accounts proved at least one thing – you can goad households toward the shopping malls, but you can’t make them spend.
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Reading time: 4 minutes
Despite a likely improvement in the global economic outlook in 2020, this note explains why the $A may well slip further next year – due to an unwinding of the recent iron-ore price boom, $US strength, and local quantitative easing measures by the Reserve Bank.
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Reading time: 10 minutes
With interest rates at historic lows, investors who rely on cash or government bonds for income returns are having a harder time making ends meet.
For risk-conscious investors, the good news is that there is a range of innovative cash and fixed income investment exposures on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) that offer attractive income returns,
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Global Markets
Global equities enjoyed another positive week thanks largely to confirmation that the US and China will engage in another round of trade talks next month. Bond yields pushed higher and gold eased as ‘risk-on’ sentiment tentatively prevailed in markets.
Despite weakness in global manufacturing data, service sector surveys in both Europe and the US last week remained positive –
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News overnight that the United States and China would resume trade talks has understandably lifted the spirits of global investors. To my mind, the new twist in the trade saga may well suggest one thing: Trump has conceded defeat.
Why would Trump cave? Because of the growing signs that the trade war has inflicted “friendly fire”
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Reading time: 5 minutes
Key Market Trends – trade tensions return
August saw a return to ‘risk-off’ sentiment in global markets, reflecting a resumption in US-China trade tensions, growing signs that these tensions are impacting on global growth (especially in Asia and Europe) and related fears associated with the renewed inversion of the US yield curve.
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Reading time: 5 minutes
Given the ongoing trade war and slowing global growth, many investors are understandably concerned about the market outlook. While I feel a ‘doomsday’ scenario is unlikely anytime soon, this note nonetheless considers what investment options might be of interest to those investors who hold grave concerns –
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Global Markets
Inversion of a key US yield curve measure (the gap between US 10-year and 2-year Federal Government bond yields) sent jitters through Wall Street last week, as did further signs of softer economic growth in Europe and China. The global stock pull back continued as did the rally in bond and gold prices.
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Global Markets
Global equities remained on the back foot last week as the previous week’s US decision to levy additional tariffs on China was quickly met with Chinese retaliation. China’s decision to let it’s currency weaken through the “psychological” level of 7 Yuan per $1US dollar unnerved markets – as did its ban on the remaining $US10b in agricultural products it imports from the US.
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Comments following RBA Governor Phillip Lowe’s speech
Governor Lowe’s speech* can be taken as a strong defence of not only the current inflation-targeting regime, but also the current inflation target band of 2 to 3 % over the medium term.
The Governor suggests that to change the band would
1) undermine longer-term central bank credibility and
2) entrench a low inflation “mind-set”.
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