David Bassanese
Betashares Chief Economist David is responsible for developing economic insights and portfolio construction strategies for adviser and retail clients. He was previously an economic columnist for The Australian Financial Review and spent several years as a senior economist and interest rate strategist at Bankers Trust and Macquarie Bank. David also held roles at the Commonwealth Treasury and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in Paris, France.
4 minutes reading time
When investors see red across their portfolios, the emotions this can trigger often lead to poor decisions. So, here’s a short guide to navigating stormy markets.
Part 1: Before the crash
The biggest gains from market dislocations are born before the crash even begins. But that doesn’t mean trying to predict recessions and sell in advance. At this stage you should be putting together a plan for what you’ll do when (not if) there is a market crash.
For truly passive investors, this should be a straightforward affair. Setting up a regular deposit and purchase of specific assets is the easiest approach, and it completely removes any bias or emotion from the process.
In a broad sell-off, growth assets such as equities will generally decline by larger amounts. This can skew your asset allocation, resulting in an under-allocation to growth assets at the bottom of the market. It’s important to consider whether you’ll make additional deposits in line with your strategic asset allocation, or whether to put extra funds into higher risk assets.
In a diversified investment option such as DBBF Ethical Diversified Balanced ETF , assets are automatically rebalanced for you on a quarterly basis. But if you’ve created your own diversified portfolio, you may need to undertake this rebalancing yourself.
For the more active investors, it’s a good idea to keep a watch-list of ETFs you’d like to buy if prices correct. It’s important to have an idea of the level you’d like to own a particular asset at – this could be based on your views of the underlying fundamentals of the exposure.
For example, you might want to own global banks ( BNKS Global Banks ETF – Currency Hedged ), but only when the price to book (P/B) ratio falls below, say 0.8x. Each month we provide an updated Factsheet which includes the P/B ratio and forward price to earnings (P/E) ratio for the Nasdaq Global ex-Australia Banks Index (Hedged AUD) (being the index BNKS aims to track). Investors can set a reminder to check this on the last business day of each month and purchase a pre-defined amount when their desired level has been reached.
Alternatively, if you’ve got a price target at which you’d like to purchase an ETF, most brokers will allow you to set an alert to notify you when that target is reached. If you think the price might be hit within the next month, you could even place an at-limit order, which will allow the trade to execute automatically if the limit price has been reached.
Whatever your approach, the key is to have a plan, write it down, and then stick to it.
Part 2: When markets head south
When markets do begin to crash, emotions will quickly become elevated. The first thing to do is stay calm.
The next thing to do is to review that plan you put together (you wrote it down, right?). Now comes the hard part – following through and sticking to the plan. As Mike Tyson famously said, “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” For investors, a market crash is a bit like getting punched in the mouth. What seemed like a good idea in the calm of a bull market, might suddenly seem folly when markets are in freefall. But that’s why we plan and write things down, because making decisions like these in the heat of the moment is a recipe for failure.
For those taking a more active approach to managing their portfolio, now is the time to pull out those watch lists. Have a good look at everything on your list and prioritise after considering any recent developments in that thematic, geography, or asset class.
Part 3: The long grind higher
If you’ve done well so far, you might want to try to ‘pick the bottom’. As tempting as it may seem, it’s almost impossible to do successfully. The good news is that it’s not necessary.
Markets generally can fall very quickly, before recovering slowly. Or as it’s more commonly described among investors: markets go down the elevator and up the escalator.
There are three possible approaches to dealing with this situation:
- Buy in early. This allows you to catch the initial rally, which can be sudden and violent. However, this means accepting that there’s a very good chance your investments may first fall further.
- Wait for markets to start recovering. Though this means missing out on that initial rally, it can be less stomach-churning than option 1.
- Take the passive approach and never stop buying. Even the world’s best investors struggle to pick tops and bottoms, so why try? By accepting that you can’t time markets and continuing to add to your investments, you can ensure you buy some on the way down, some near the bottom, and some more again on the way back up.
The aftermath
Congratulations! You made it through the crash. If you stuck to your plan, you likely did better than most. And hopefully you didn’t lose too much sleep along the way.
Don’t lose that plan though. You’ll need it again someday.
David is responsible for developing economic insights and portfolio construction strategies for adviser and retail clients. He was previously an economic columnist for The Australian Financial Review and spent several years as a senior economist and interest rate strategist at Bankers Trust and Macquarie Bank. David also held roles at the Commonwealth Treasury and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in Paris, France.
Read more from David.
1 comment on this
As predicted in the USA several months ago.
Its pretty easy, there is no loyalty these days so every individual investor should do what is OK for themselves.
Follow the graphs, listen to informed investment reporting agencies, sell out when appropriate, put it in the likes of cash. follow the markets, watch the graphs, listen to informed commentary and then as a time which suits the individual, buy back in at a significantly lower entry point, having minimised your losses buy securing your investments.
I have done this several times over the past 20+ years when corrections have happened
If David takes time to advise on a possible correction, then you can be assured that the shit will hit the fan and again the mum’s and dad’s will suffer if they are not astute.