Assuming an easing in current global trade war concerns, it still seems likely that global long-term bond yields will rise rather than fall somewhat over the next year or so. This note examines the likely impact on fixed-income bond returns, and the degree to which the prospect of higher rates can already be “priced” into

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Working for an ETF fund manager, investors and financial advisers simply presume that I’ll always favour a simple passive index-tracking ETF.  Make no mistake, whilst I may think that indexing is the way to go most of the time because of the obvious benefits of instant diversification, lower costs, and the historical inability of the

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Trade war concerns kept global equities in check during June but the Australian market did well.  Download the first edition of my new Market Trends report, detailing current and potentially emerging trends across equity and bonds markets. Market Trends – July 2018 Update

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The end of the financial year is a time when many investors take the opportunity to review and assess their portfolios. What’s more, many set about attempting to make some positive adjustments for the financial year ahead. During this period, based upon the interaction we have with investors and their advisers, we think there are

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There’s this movement I’ve been hearing a lot about lately called FIRE, which stands for “Financial Independence, Retire Early”. The acronym intrigued me and initially I was curious as to whether it was another get rich quick scheme. Far from it, FIRE is a slow burn. For those that haven’t read about it yet, I

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The Australian dollar has traded a wide up-trending range against the $US since early 2016, though appears to have broken below this range more recently. This note provides an updated valuation framework to explain recent $A behavior. The model also suggests that, under reasonable assumptions, the $A could test US71c by year-end. $A – breaking

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The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics Residential Property Price Report suggests house prices eased in most capital cities in the March quarter. This note provides an update on my house price valuation estimates. It suggests that while Sydney property remains relatively overvalued, several other capital cities now appear relatively cheap.  Importantly, however, overall Australian house

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In an era of central-bank inflation targeting, what matters most is arguably not inflation, but inflationary pressures. If actual core inflation is contained through tighter monetary policy (as the US Federal Reserve is attempting to do now in the US), it means higher real policy rates and also higher real discount rates for all asset

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Investors fearful of major equity market declines often decide to include in their portfolios relatively “safe” assets such as cash and bonds so as to limit their downside.  The problem with this approach is that seeking safety can be costly in terms of forgone returns, especially given today’s generally low level of interest rates.  Investing

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Industry crosses $38B mark The Australian ETF industry continued to grow last month, reaching a record high of $38.4B. The Industry grew 1.4% in the month ($534m),  the vast majority (~90%) of which came from new inflows, rather than asset appreciation. Read on for details of the month in ETFs.

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