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Market Trends: July 2018 Update

Trade war concerns kept global equities in check during June but the Australian market did well.  Download the first edition of my new Market Trends report, detailing current and potentially emerging trends across equity and bonds markets. Market Trends – July 2018 Update

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AUD/USD - where to from here?

AUD/USD – where to from here?

The Australian dollar has traded a wide up-trending range against the $US since early 2016, though appears to have broken below this range more recently. This note provides an updated valuation framework to explain recent $A behavior. The model also suggests that, under reasonable assumptions, the $A could test US71c by year-end. $A – breaking

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Australian House Price Valuation Update: What’s cheap, what’s expensive?

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics Residential Property Price Report suggests house prices eased in most capital cities in the March quarter. This note provides an update on my house price valuation estimates. It suggests that while Sydney property remains relatively overvalued, several other capital cities now appear relatively cheap.  Importantly, however, overall Australian house

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Pressure Gauge

An Investor’s Guide to Inflation

In an era of central-bank inflation targeting, what matters most is arguably not inflation, but inflationary pressures. If actual core inflation is contained through tighter monetary policy (as the US Federal Reserve is attempting to do now in the US), it means higher real policy rates and also higher real discount rates for all asset

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