Market Trends: Fears of a global recession fading fast

Market fears of a global recession anytime soon are now all but eradicated. Resilient US economic growth, hopes of a broadening in global growth to non-US regions, artificial intelligence euphoria and rate-cut expectations are now the major drivers of the global equity rally. The only near-term debate is how quickly central banks will cut interest rates.

The major risks remaining are sticky inflation and a premature acceleration in global growth, which places renewed upward pressure on bond yields and downward pressure on increasingly stretched equity valuations.

As with global markets, PE valuations are getting a little stretched locally. Sustained further gains seem to require a decent decline in bond yields (without a recession) or further gain in forward earnings.

With a local and global economic soft landing now achievable, the outlook for earnings is encouraging – albeit expected growth over the coming year appears somewhat more subdued than for the global market overall.

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Written by

David Bassanese

Chief Economist

David is responsible for developing economic insights and portfolio construction strategies for adviser and retail clients. He was previously an economic columnist for The Australian Financial Review and spent several years as a senior economist and interest rate strategist at Bankers Trust and Macquarie Bank. David also held roles at the Commonwealth Treasury and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in Paris, France.

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