From macro resistance to regulatory momentum | Betashares
Transfer and earn up to $1,000 to invest Earn up to $1k to invest Learn more Learn more
Loading
This content is for financial adviser use only.
By clicking on 'Financial professional', you certify that you are an Australian financial services licensee or authorised representative, and are authorised to provide personal advice to retail clients in relation to managed investment schemes.
Home
keyboard_arrow_down
chevron_right
Insights
keyboard_arrow_down
chevron_right
From macro resistance to regulatory momentum
keyboard_arrow_down

From macro resistance to regulatory momentum

6 min read • 30 Sep 2026

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market rebounded strongly over the past fortnight, with Bitcoin recovering from around US$75K to briefly trade above US$87K on 23 September, its highest level since January.

The rally came despite restrictive monetary policy, elevated bond yields and the CLARITY Act failing to advance through the US Senate, as improved liquidity, renewed ETF demand and continued regulatory progress supported the market.

Over the seven days to 27 September 2026, Bitcoin and Ethereum were higher by 5.39% and 5.28% respectively. Bitcoin’s market capitalisation rose to US$1.7 trillion, and the global crypto market rose to US$2.91 trillion. Bitcoin’s market dominance is at 59%.

Price High Low Change from previous week
BTC (in US$) $84,724 $87,154 $80,237 5.39%
ETH (in US$) $2,715 $2,801 $2,571 5.28%

Source: CoinMarketCap. As at 27 September 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Performance is shown in US dollars and does not consider any USD/AUD currency movements.

Source: CoinMarketCap. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Crypto news we’re watching

SEC opens a pathway for tokenised US equities

The US Securities and Exchange Commission has introduced a five-year conditional exemption allowing certain tokenised US-listed shares to trade on approved on-chain venues using automated market makers and liquidity pools. Tokenised shares must provide investors with the same rights as the underlying securities, while smart contracts must be auditable, public and deployed on public blockchains.1

Tokenisation is moving from regulatory discussion toward permitted market infrastructure. Rather than creating synthetic versions of US equities outside the existing securities framework, the temporary exemption establishes a controlled pathway for conventional shares to trade on blockchain rails while preserving shareholder rights and regulatory oversight.

The ECB brings central bank money onto tokenised markets

The European Central Bank (ECB) has launched ‘Pontes’, a wholesale settlement platform that allows transactions in tokenised assets to settle using central bank money. The platform connects distributed-ledger markets with the Eurosystem’s existing TARGET payment infrastructure and will initially involve banks and market infrastructures before expanding its capabilities and operating hours through 20282.

The launch addresses a key barrier to tokenised finance by allowing blockchain-based securities to settle using central bank money. With the ECB also preparing to invest in tokenised securities through Pontes, distributed-ledger infrastructure is moving beyond private-sector experimentation and into Europe’s central-bank settlement system.

CRYP company spotlight

Strategy continues building its Bitcoin treasury

Strategy acquired another 950 Bitcoin for approximately US$75.7 million between 14 and 20 September, taking its total holdings to 846,000 BTC, acquired for approximately US$63.8 billion at an average cost of US$75,416 per Bitcoin. Unlike many previous purchases funded through capital markets, the latest acquisition was funded from existing cash reserves, alongside a US$174 million repurchase of its STRC preferred shares.3

Strategy is held in the CRYP Crypto Innovators ETF. CRYP provides exposure to global companies at the forefront of the crypto economy.5

Bitcoin (BTC): Accumulation Trend Score

Accumulation Trend Score measures whether larger Bitcoin holders are accumulating or distributing coins, with readings closer to one indicating stronger accumulation and readings closer to zero indicating distribution. It provides an indication of how conviction among larger market participants is changing alongside movements in Bitcoin’s price.

According to Glassnode data as of 26 September 2026, Bitcoin’s Accumulation Trend Score was approximately 0.37, after stronger readings during the market’s rebound in late August and early September. The moderation suggests accumulation has become less broad-based as Bitcoin recovered above US$80K, with larger holders showing less aggressive buying than earlier in the rally. While the reading does not indicate widespread distribution on its own, it suggests investor conviction has softened as prices have moved higher.

Source: Glassnode. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Bitcoin (BTC): Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)

Spent Output Profit Ratio measures whether Bitcoin moving on-chain is being sold at a profit or loss relative to the price at which it was previously acquired. Readings above one indicates profits are being realised on average, while readings below one indicate realised losses.

According to Glassnode data as of 26 September 2026, Bitcoin’s SOPR was approximately 1.00, with the metric remaining close to its neutral level despite Bitcoin’s recent recovery. This suggests investors moving coins on-chain are, on average, realising relatively limited profits or losses, with the rebound yet to generate sustained profit-taking. Combined with a moderating Accumulation Trend Score, the data suggests larger-holder buying has softened while existing holders have not yet responded to higher prices with significant realised selling.

Source: Glassnode. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Altcoin news

Most major altcoins were in the green over the last seven days to 27 September. However, NEAR rose roughly 52% in the seven days to 27 September, significantly outperforming the Top 20 altcoins.

The clearest fundamental catalyst was accelerating adoption of NEAR Intents, its cross-chain transaction infrastructure. Cumulative Intents volume approached US$30 billion, while weekly volume exceeded US$1 billion. NEAR also made perpetual futures trading through near.com confidential by default, allowing users to fund trades across multiple chains while obscuring transaction details6.

Investing in crypto-assets or companies servicing crypto-asset markets should be considered very high risk. Exposure to crypto assets involves substantially higher risk than traditional investments due to their speculative nature and the very high volatility of crypto-asset markets.

Investing in crypto assets or crypto-focused companies is not suitable for all investors and should only be considered by investors who (i) fully understand their features and risks or after consulting a professional financial adviser, and (ii) who have an extremely high tolerance for risk and the capacity to absorb a rapid loss of some or all of their investment. Any investment in crypto assets or crypto-focused companies should only be considered as a very small component of an investor’s overall portfolio.

Off the Chain is published every second Tuesday. It provides the latest news on bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market, along with analysis and insights into the world of crypto.

It provides general information only and is not a recommendation to invest in any crypto asset, crypto-focused company or investment product. 

1. https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026-90-sec-issues-innovation-exemption-facilitate-trading-tokenized-nms-stock-request-comment ↑

2. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.pr260921~e754847a7b.en.html ↑

3. https://www.strategy.com/press/strategy-acquires-950-btc-and-repurchases-174-million-of-strc_09-21-2026 ↑

4. As at 25 September 2026. No assurance is given that this company will remain in the portfolio or will be a profitable investment.

5. CRYP does not invest in crypto assets directly and does not track price movements of any crypto assets. For more information on risks and other features of CRYP, please see the Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination (TMD), available at www.betashares.com.au. ↑

6. https://cointelegraph.com/markets/near-price-surge-intents-zcash-privacy ↑

Loading
Feedback
close

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.
Please rate your experience with our website:*
Please let us know of any recommendations, difficulties or comments you have regarding our website

Feedback