Massive shifts hitting crypto markets now
Justin Arzadon
6 minutes reading time
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Off the Chain: 14 October 2025 - Uptober gets volatile
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A US government shutdown and an increasing debasement trade narrative sent Bitcoin and the broader crypto market to new all-time highs over the last seven days, with Bitcoin eclipsing US$126K. However, US President Trump’s threat to escalate tariffs on China, in response to Beijing’s rare earth export controls, triggered a sell-off in global equity markets and crypto. Bitcoin briefly fell below US$110K.
All up, Bitcoin and Ethereum were down for the week: -10.56% and -15.87% respectively over the seven days to 12 October 2025. Bitcoin’s market capitalisation is back to US$2.2 trillion while the global crypto market cap fell to US$3.7 trillion. Bitcoin’s market dominance is up to 60%.
| Price | High | Low | Change from previous week | |
| BTC (in US$) | $111,805 | $126,069 | $109,219 | -10.56% |
| ETH (in US$) | $3,836 | $4,754 | $3,602 | -15.87% |
Source: CoinMarketCap. As at 12 October 2025. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Performance is shown in US dollars and does not consider any USD/AUD currency movements.
Source: Glassnode. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Crypto news we’re watching
Bitcoin into central bank reserves: Deutsche Bank
A recent report by Deutsche Bank’s Research, Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Future of Central Bank Reserves by 2030, compared the rival assets against traditional reserve standards such as volatility, liquidity and trust. It concluded that by 2030 both gold and Bitcoin could share space on central bank balance sheets. Rather than one replacing the other, the report suggests they may coexist as complementary diversifiers in a shifting monetary landscape.
The authors emphasised: “Bitcoin and gold are complementary diversification to central bank portfolios1.”
Morgan Stanley drops restrictions for crypto
Last Friday marked another milestone in crypto’s mainstream adoption. Morgan Stanley advisers were informed that the firm is now opening access to digital assets for all clients, including those with retirement accounts.
Until now, the gate had been firmly shut to all but a select few, namely investors with aggressive risk profiles and at least US$1.5 million in assets. That barrier is now gone.
The bank’s global investment committee has also gone a step further, recommending an initial allocation of up to 4%, depending on the client’s objectives, even if long-term wealth preservation is the target2.
CRYP company spotlight
Metaplanet is now the fourth largest public bitcoin holder
After purchasing 5,268 BTC at a cost of US$623 million, Metaplanet (TYO: 3350) is now the fourth-largest Bitcoin holder. The purchase brings the company’s BTC total holdings to 30,823 BTC. The Japanese firm sits behind Strategy, MARA Holdings and Cantor Fitzgerald-backed XXI (sometimes referred to as Twenty One Capital).3
Metaplanet is held in the Betashares Crypto Innovators ETF (ASX: CRYP)4. CRYP provides exposure to global companies at the forefront of the crypto economy.5
Bitcoin (BTC): ETF Inflows
This metric shows the total net flow of funds of the leading Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs traded in the US, reflecting the day-to-day changes in the ETF’s holdings. It is calculated as the difference between today’s balance data point and the previously available balance data point in native units. Each day’s native net flow is then converted into USD, leveraging the closing USD exchange rate at 16:00 New York time.
According to data from Glassnode, as of 9 October 2025, net BTC ETF flows have been at record monthly highs. In fact, there has not been a negative net day since 26 September 2025.
Source: Glassnode. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Bitcoin (BTC): Annualised Realised Volatility (1 week)
Realised volatility is the standard deviation of returns from the mean return of a market. High values in realised volatility indicate a phase of high risk in that market. It is measured on log returns over a fixed time horizon or over a rolling window to obtain a time-dependent observable. While implied volatility refers to the market’s assessment of future volatility, realised volatility measures what happened in the past.
According to data from Glassnode, as of 11 October 2025 annualised realised volatility (1 week) shot up to 33.68%, a level not seen since 15 April 2025.
Source: Glassnode. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Altcoin news
The top 20 altcoins were deep in the red in the last seven days to 12 October. However, Binance Coin was down only -1.3% after hitting a new all-time high of US$1331. Although Binance Coin eventually cooled off with the rest of the market, it is still up over 91% over the last year.
Helping push the coin higher was news that YZi Lab, the venture capital arm of Binance, has announced a US$1 billion builder fund, looking to strengthen its backing for project founders building within the BNB ecosystem6.
According to the Binance website, “BNB is the native token of the decentralized BNB Chain, where it powers transactions, pays for fees, and allows for participation in governance. It can also be used on the Binance exchange for benefits such as trading fee discounts, token airdrops, and VIP membership.”
Investing in crypto-assets or companies servicing crypto-asset markets should be considered extremely high risk. Exposure to crypto assets involves substantially higher risk than traditional investments due to their speculative nature and the very high volatility of crypto-asset markets.
Investing in crypto assets or crypto-focused companies is not suitable for all investors and should only be considered by investors who (i) fully understand their features and risks or after consulting a professional financial adviser, and (ii) who have an extremely high tolerance for risk and the capacity to absorb a rapid loss of some or all of their investment. Any investment in crypto assets or crypto-focused companies should only be considered as a very small component of an investor’s overall portfolio.
References:
3. https://www.theblock.co/post/373023/metaplanet-4th-largest-bitcoin-treasury
4. As at 10 October 2025. No assurance is given that this company will remain in the portfolio or will be a profitable investment.
5. CRYP does not invest in crypto assets directly and does not track price movements of any crypto assets. For more information on risks and other features of CRYP, please see the Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination (TMD), available at www.betashares.com.au.
6. https://www.mitrade.com/au/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1180570-20251009
Off the Chain is published every second Tuesday. It provides the latest news on Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market, along with analysis and insights into the world of crypto.
It provides general information only and is not a recommendation to invest in any crypto asset, crypto-focused company or investment product.
